Obesity is a rapidly growing global public health challenge imposing significant clinical and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Excess body weight is a well established driver of chronic complications. The burden of obesity-driven chronic complications translates into escalating healthcare costs and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) as Body Mass Index (BMI) increases.
Objectives:
Primary objectives:
1.To estimate, for each calendar-year (from 2021 to 2025), the annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, annual incidence of obesity-related complications (ORCs), and annual all-cause mortality, stratified by the baseline BMI category of the calendar-year of interest, and to compare these outcomes across BMI categories.
2.To estimate, for each follow-up year (up to 5 years), the annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, annual incidence of ORCs, and annual all-cause mortality, stratified by BMI category (registered at baseline and, if available, updated annually), and to compare these outcomes across BMI categories.
3.To estimate cumulative HCRU and HCRU-related costs over up to 5 years of follow-up, stratified by baseline BMI category, and to compare these outcomes across BMI categories.
Secondary objectives:
1.To estimate the incremental annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, annual incidence of ORCs, and annual all-cause mortality according to knee osteoarthritis (OA) status (yes/no) among adults with baseline overweight or obesity (combined and separately), and to compare these outcomes between knee OA status.
2.To estimate the incremental annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, annual incidence of ORCs and annual all-cause mortality according to overweight/obesity status (yes/no) among adults with baseline knee OA, and to compare these outcomes between overweight/obesity status.
Exploratory objectives:
1.To describe frequency and patterns of BMI category transitions (e.g., BMI improvement category: transition from obesity to overweight) over follow-up among adults with overweight or obesity.
2.To estimate annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, and annual incidence of ORCs during follow-up among adults with overweight or obesity, stratified by BMI category transitions (e.g., BMI category improvement: transition from obesity to overweight) and to compare these outcomes across BMI category transitions (e.g., using stable BMI as the reference group).
3.To estimate annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, and annual incidence of ORCs during follow-up among adults with overweight or obesity, stratified by BMI unit percentage change (e.g., =20% decrease in BMI) and to compare these outcomes across BMI percentage change categories.
4.To estimate annual HCRU, annual HCRU-related costs, and annual incidence of ORCs during follow-up among adults with overweight or obesity who achieved weight loss (defined as =5% BMI unit reduction), stratified by weight regain status (i.e., maintained the weight loss or continued to lose weight versus regained weight), and to compare these outcomes across weight regain status using maintained weight loss or further weight loss as reference.
Study design:
This is an observational retrospective multi-country cohort study using existing healthcare databases (i.e. Electronic Medical Record [EMR], Electronic Health Record [EHR], and claims data). Participating countries will be from e.g. Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other regions, with the final database selection to be confirmed based on data availability and regulatory feasibility.he overall study period will span from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2025 or until the latest year with data available in each database (including the look-back period and follow-up); while the study period will span from 01 January 2021 to 31 December 2025.
The source population will include adults with =1 BMI record during the overall study period, with the first BMI record being at age 18 years or older. Multiple cohorts will be derived from the source population to address each study objective.
Index date will be defined separately for each cohort.
Source population:
Inclusion Criteria: individuals meeting all inclusion criteria will be included in the study:
• 1 BMI record during the overall study period
• First BMI record recorded at age 18 or after
Exclusion Criteria: individuals meeting the exclusion criterion will be excluded from the study:
• Missing gender
• History of bariatric surgery at the time or any time prior to the first BMI record in the overall study period.
Cohorts created for each objective are:
• Cohorts for the primary objective 1. Five cohorts, 1 for each calendar-year (from year 2021 to 2025), will be derived from the source population. These cohorts will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section10.4.1).
• Cohort for the primary objective 2 and 3. Derived from the source population, and it will include adults minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.2).
• Cohort for the secondary objective 1. Derived from the cohort for the primary objective 2, and it will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.2) and baseline overweight or obesity.
• Cohort for the secondary objective 2. Derived from the source population, and it will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.2) and baseline knee OA.
• Cohort for the exploratory objective 1. Derived from the cohort for the primary objective 3 and will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.2) and overweight or obesity at baseline.
• Cohort for the exploratory objectives 2 and 3. Derived from the cohort for the exploratory objective 1 and will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.1) with baseline overweight or obesity.
• Cohort for the exploratory objective 4. Derived from the cohort for exploratory objective 1 and will include adults with minimum available BMI data (see Section 10.4.2) with baseline overweight or obesity followed by =5% BMI reduction.
In all cohorts, patients with a pregnancy record and patients with =1 condition related to potential unintentional weight loss (e.g., active malignancy excluding benign skin cancer, HIV/AIDS, and limb amputation) in periods predefined for each study objective will be excluded.
Variables:
Outcome variables: HCRU counts, including hospitalisations, emergency department visits, outpatient and specialist visits, and prescriptions; HCRU-related costs (total and component-specific); all-cause mortality; incidence of pre-specified ORCs, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke), chronic kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnoea, knee OA, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; cumulative ORC count; BMI category transitions; and weight regain status.
Grouping variables: BMI category defined according to WHO, Japan Society for the Study of Obesity, and Working Group on Obesity in China classifications, as applicable per data source; knee OA status (yes/no) defined from diagnosis records; BMI percentage change; and weight regain (=5% BMI increase following initial =5% reduction).
Demographic and clinical variables: Age, sex, index year, baseline ORCs, obesity management medications (including GLP-1 receptor agonists, orlistat, and bariatric surgery), concomitant treatments, and cardiometabolic parameters (HbA1c, blood pressure, lipids — captured for descriptive characterisation only, not included as regression covariates as they represent mediators on the causal pathway from obesity to healthcare costs).
Data sources/Data Collection:
Existing EMR, EHR, and claims databases from the ENGINE-CMH federated network will be included. Participating countries will span Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other regions, with the final database selection confirmed based on data availability and regulatory feasibility.
Statistical Analysis:
Analyses will follow a hierarchical framework aligned with the study objectives. Details and analytical approaches will be specified in the statistical analysis plan (SAP). For all objectives, baseline characteristics will be summarised by BMI category. Incidence of ORCs and all-cause mortality will be estimated using person-time methods and compared by BMI classes recorded at baseline (or updated at different follow-up timepoints, as per study objective).
For the cross-sectional burden analysis (primary objective 1), annual HCRU counts will be modelled using Poisson or negative binomial regression (depending on overdispersion), and HCRU-related costs using generalised linear models with Gamma family and log link. BMI category, calendar-year, and their interaction will be included to estimate year-specific cost and HCRU ratios by BMI class relative to normal weight
For the longitudinal incidence-based analysis (primary objective 2), BMI will be treated as a time-varying categorical exposure, updated at annual landmarks using the most recent available measurement. Person-year-level data will be analysed using generalised estimating equations to account for repeated measures within patients. For cumulative analyses (primary objective 3), baseline BMI will be held fixed and total follow-up costs and HCRU aggregated over up to 5 years, with inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) as the primary method to account for incomplete follow-up.
Secondary objectives will assess the reciprocal burden of knee OA and obesity using interaction models (knee OA × BMI category) within the respective populations, and population attributable fractions will quantify the population-level impact under stated assumptions.
Exploratory objectives will employ a landmark design at 3 years to classify BMI transitions, percentage BMI change, and weight regain status prior to assessing post-landmark HCRU, costs, and ORC incidence. A continuous-time multi-state Markov model will describe BMI category transition patterns. IPCW will be applied as a sensitivity analysis for annual outcomes to address potential informative censoring. All models will be adjusted for pre-specified demographic and clinical covariates (age, sex, index year, and database-specific baseline comorbidity indicators). This study is sponsored by a private organisation and conducted in collaboration with multiple independent data partners. Analyses will be carried out locally within each site’s Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP)–standardised database using a federated analytical framework, ensuring that only aggregate, non identifiable results are shared centrally.