Background: The evolution of multimorbidity patterns during aging is still an under-researched area. We lack evidence concerning the time spent by older adults within one same multimorbidity pattern, and their transitional probability across different patterns when further chronic diseases arise. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by exploring multimorbidity patterns across decades of age in older adults, and longitudinal dynamics among these patterns.Methods: Longitudinal study based on the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) on adults >= 60 years (N=3,363). Hidden Markov Models were applied to model the temporal evolution of both multimorbidity patterns and individuals’ transitions over a 12-year follow-up.Findings: Within the study population (mean age 76.1 years, 66.6% female), 87.2% had >= 2 chronic conditions at baseline. Four longitudinal multimorbidity patterns were identified for each decade. Individuals in all decades showed the shortest permanence time in an Unspecific pattern lacking any overrepresented diseases (range: 4.6-10.9 years), but the pattern with the longest permanence time varied by age. Sexagenarians remained longest in the Psychiatric-endocrine and sensorial pattern (15.4 years); septuagenarians in the Neuro-vascular and skin-sensorial pattern (11.0 years); and octogenarians and beyond in the Neuro-sensorial pattern (8.9 years). Transition probabilities varied across decades, sexagenarians showing the highest levels of stability.Interpretation: Our findings highlight the dynamism and heterogeneity underlying multimorbidity by quantifying the varying permanence times and transition probabilities across patterns in different decades. With increasing age, older adults experience decreasing stability and progressively shorter permanence time within one same multimorbidity pattern.

(1) Introduction: Cardiovascular disease is associated with high mortality, especially in older people. This study aimed to characterize the evolution of combined multimorbidity and polypharmacy patterns in older people with different cardiovascular disease profiles. (2) Material and methods: This longitudinal study drew data from the Information System for Research in Primary Care in people aged 65 to 99 years with profiles of cardiovascular multimorbidity. Combined patterns of multimorbidity and polypharmacy were analysed using fuzzy c-means clustering techniques and hidden Markov models. The prevalence, observed/expected ratio, and exclusivity of chronic diseases and/or groups of these with the corresponding medication were described. (3) Results: The study included 114,516 people, mostly men (59.6%) with a mean age of 78.8 years and a high prevalence of polypharmacy (83.5%). The following patterns were identified: Mental, behavioural, digestive and cerebrovascular; Neuropathy, autoimmune and musculoskeletal; Musculoskeletal, mental, behavioural, genitourinary, digestive and dermatological; Non-specific; Multisystemic; Respiratory, cardiovascular, behavioural and genitourinary; Diabetes and ischemic cardiopathy; and Cardiac. The prevalence of overrepresented health problems and drugs remained stable over the years, although by study end, cohort survivors had more polypharmacy and multimorbidity. Most people followed the same pattern over time; the most frequent transitions were from Non-specific to Mental, behavioural, digestive and cerebrovascular and from Musculoskeletal, mental, behavioural, genitourinary, digestive and dermatological to Non-specific. (4) Conclusions: Eight combined multimorbidity and polypharmacy patterns, differentiated by sex, remained stable over follow-up. Understanding the behaviour of different diseases and drugs can help design individualised interventions in populations with clinical complexity.

Objective To create an electronic frailty index (eFRAGICAP) using electronic health records (EHR) in Catalunya (Spain) and assess its predictive validity with a two-year follow-up of the outcomes: homecare need, institutionalization and mortality in the elderly. Additionally, to assess its concurrent validity compared to other standardized measures: the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC). Methods The eFRAGICAP was based on the electronic frailty index (eFI) developed in United Kingdom, and includes 36 deficits identified through clinical diagnoses, prescriptions, physical examinations, and questionnaires registered in the EHR of primary health care centres (PHC). All subjects > 65 assigned to a PHC in Barcelona on 1st January, 2016 were included. Subjects were classified according to their eFRAGICAP index as: fit, mild, moderate or severe frailty. Predictive validity was assessed comparing results with the following outcomes: institutionalization, homecare need, and mortality at 24 months. Concurrent validation of the eFRAGICAP was performed with a sample of subjects (n = 333) drawn from the global cohort and the CFS and RISC. Discrimination and calibration measures for the outcomes of institutionalization, homecare need, and mortality and frailty scales were calculated. Results 253,684 subjects had their eFRAGICAP index calculated. Mean age was 76.3 years (59.5% women). Of these, 41.1% were classified as fit, and 32.2% as presenting mild, 18.7% moderate, and 7.9% severe frailty. The mean age of the subjects included in the validation subsample (n = 333) was 79.9 years (57.7% women). Of these, 12.6% were classified as fit, and 31.5% presented mild, 39.6% moderate, and 16.2% severe frailty. Regarding the outcome analyses, the eFRAGICAP was good in the detection of subjects who were institutionalized, required homecare assistance, or died at 24 months (c-statistic of 0.841, 0.853, and 0.803, respectively). eFRAGICAP was also good in the detection of frail subjects compared to the CFS (AUC 0.821) and the RISC (AUC 0.848). Conclusion The eFRAGICAP has a good discriminative capacity to identify frail subjects compared to other frailty scales and predictive outcomes.

Purpose: To determine the prevalence and incidence of electrocardiographic abnormalities (EKG-abn). Material and methods: Design. 2 stage study: 1st: descriptive cross-sectional, 2nd: prospective cohort. Location. 28 urban primary health centers in Barcelona city area. Participants. The study population was composed by patients who had participated in the population based ARTPER multicentric study. This study has two phases where each patient had one EKG, physical examination and blood test to obtain the secondary variables. The available EKG from both phases were reviewed, achieving a total of 2,727 patients with EKG. 601 (22%) individuals with CV disease were excluded. A total of 2.126 patients were studied of whom 392 (18%) had 2 EKG, one at each phase. Mean measurements. The association between the presence of EKG-abn and explanatory variables was performed using multivariate logistic regression, obtaining odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: 58% women and average age 66 years. 32% (95% CI: 30%-34%) (n = 671) presented EKG-abn of whom 60% (n = 402) were minor and 40% (n = 269) major disorders. The most common EKG-abn were the conduction disturbances. EKG-abn were associated with males (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4-2.1) and patients older than 65 (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4-2.0). Among the 345 people without EKG-abn at baseline and with 2 available EKG, 71 showed an EKG-abn at the second EKG (incidence in 4.7 years of 21% (95% CI: 16%-25%). Conclusion: EKG abnormalities are common in healthy general population. EKG-abn are more common in male and elderly patients.