BACKGROUND: Estimation of the total burden of diabetes in the world has been challenging. International surveillance of diabetes is based on estimates from the International Diabetes Federation which uses published cross-sectional data to estimate diabetes prevalence in all countries and then models this data to project prevalence estimates for the next 30 years. These estimates suggest that prevalence is still rising. However, the available data concerning diabetes incidence is less clear. While the rising prevalence of diabetes is often interpreted as being due to a worsening risk profile of the population and higher incidence, it may also reflect improved survival driven by improvements in medical care and treatment. Diabetes incidence is the key measure of population risk and of the impact of prevention initiatives, but very few cohort studies have been large enough to be able to describe changing diabetes incidence over time. Among the scant incidence data which does exist, there are a few studies which may suggest that diabetes incidence may be falling in spite of rising prevalence but not all data are consistently showing the same trends.
To date, no systematic review has reported on trends in global diabetes incidence, and data from country-level registries have not been assembled or compared. As a result, the current trends in diabetes incidence are unknown. Over the last 30 years, several diabetes registries and administrative data sets relating to diabetes have been established, and have collected incidence data over time or are routinely collecting data. We are planning to assemble aggregate (summary) data from these various sources and use the data to understand trends in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1995-2015. We are undertaking this project to determine whether incidence rates of type 2 diabetes across the world may be changing, and actually falling.
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT: The over-arching aim of this project is to better understand trends of diabetes incidence globally. Specifically, we aim to use available diabetes registry, Health Maintenance Organisations and insurance based diabetes data to assess global, regional, and country-specific rates and trends in incidence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes.
METHODS: Appropriate data sources (diabetes registries, primary care databases, HMOs and other health insurance database sources measuring diabetes incidence) have been identified. We will ask each collaborator to provide aggregate (summary) data on type 2 diabetes for the period 1995?2015. We will ask for counts of new cases, deaths counts, and diabetes free denominators (population or person years) per year, by sex and by 5 year age-groups. We shall also ask for prevalence data and will request 2010 population data by age and sex for each country (for direction standardisation) which supplies data. We are only asking for summary/aggregate data and no individual record data will be required. We specifically want type 2 diabetes data but we ask for all diabetes data as well. These data will be combined and patterns of diabetes incidence according to age and sex will be analysed. Detailed information about the data sources will also be requested.
We will only use the assembled summary data for analyses described in this document and if other analyses become a priority we will request further permission.
OUTCOMES: Accurate data on the causes and burden of disease at the population level are essential to develop efficient and effective interventions and evaluate their impacts ? this research will provide the ‘big’ data analysis that is necessary to do this. This work will develop methods and standards for cross-country comparisons, and will provide the first systematic descriptions of trends in incidence of type 2 diabetes. Understanding incidence will allow more powerful insights into the evolution of the diabetes epidemic and the effects of population-wide interventions than is possible with prevalence studies.
Titol anglès Global and country-specific rates and trends in the incidence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes (GLOBALDIAB)
Resum anglès BACKGROUND: Estimation of the total burden of diabetes in the world has been challenging. International surveillance of diabetes is based on estimates from the International Diabetes Federation which uses published cross-sectional data to estimate diabetes prevalence in all countries and then models this data to project prevalence estimates for the next 30 years. These estimates suggest that prevalence is still rising. However, the available data concerning diabetes incidence is less clear. While the rising prevalence of diabetes is often interpreted as being due to a worsening risk profile of the population and higher incidence, it may also reflect improved survival driven by improvements in medical care and treatment. Diabetes incidence is the key measure of population risk and of the impact of prevention initiatives, but very few cohort studies have been large enough to be able to describe changing diabetes incidence over time. Among the scant incidence data which does exist, there are a few studies which may suggest that diabetes incidence may be falling in spite of rising prevalence but not all data are consistently showing the same trends.
To date, no systematic review has reported on trends in global diabetes incidence, and data from country-level registries have not been assembled or compared. As a result, the current trends in diabetes incidence are unknown. Over the last 30 years, several diabetes registries and administrative data sets relating to diabetes have been established, and have collected incidence data over time or are routinely collecting data. We are planning to assemble aggregate (summary) data from these various sources and use the data to understand trends in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1995-2015. We are undertaking this project to determine whether incidence rates of type 2 diabetes across the world may be changing, and actually falling.