Rationale and background: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has resulted in a global pandemic. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty® (tozinameran), a novel mRNA-based vaccine, has been authorised for use in the European Union (EU) for the prevention of COVID-19. Efficient and timely monitoring of the safety of the vaccine is needed in European countries. The safety of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is being investigated in clinical and epidemiological studies conducted worldwide.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States (US) issued a statement indicating a possible link between vaccination to prevent COVID-19 and myocarditis for both the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine produced by Moderna. Several researchers have reported an increase in risk of myocarditis and/or pericarditis within 42 days of receiving the vaccination, compared with the risk among unexposed persons, particularly after the second dose and among young male recipients. European Medicines Agency (EMA)’s safety committee (Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee [PRAC]) has assessed recent data on the known risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines Comirnaty and Spikevax (i.e., trade names for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, respectively). The outcome of the review confirms the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis, which is already reflected in the product information for these 2 vaccines.
To further examine the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer and Vaccine monitoring Collaboration for Europe (VAC4EU) are conducting this study. This study is nested in the EUPAS41623 cohort study, titled Post Conditional Approval Active Surveillance Study Among Individuals in Europe Receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine, which estimates the incidence rates of prespecified adverse events of special interest (AESIs) in 5 European countries among individuals who receive at least 1 dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID 19 vaccine and among unvaccinated individuals.
Research question and objectives: This study will address the following research question, «»What is the clinical course of myocarditis and pericarditis cases after being vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in European countries?»»
Primary study objective
? To describe the clinical course (treatment, survival, hospitalisations, long-term cardiac outcomes) of myocarditis or pericarditis among individuals diagnosed with myocarditis and/or pericarditis after receiving at least 1 dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and among individuals diagnosed with myocarditis and/or pericarditis who had no prior COVID-19 vaccination, using a cohort study design.
Secondary study objective
? To examine and identify potential risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis, such as age, sex, Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccination status, vaccine doses received (e.g., first, second, third, and booster doses), and history of COVID-19, using a cohort study design
Study design: This cohort study is nested in the ongoing retrospective cohort study (EUPAS41623) titled Post Conditional Approval Active Surveillance Study Among Individuals in Europe Receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine. The parent study includes individuals across 5 European countries who receive at least 1 dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID 19 vaccine, as well as individuals who did not receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
For the primary objective (natural history), the study will be conducted in the cohort of cases of myocarditis and of pericarditis identified in the full population of the parent study.
In the parent study component comparing risk of AESIs in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, the 2 groups are matched 1:1 on date of vaccination in the vaccinated group and date of study eligibility in the unvaccinated group. Individuals are also matched on age, sex, history of COVID-19, place of residence, history of influenza vaccination, pregnancy status, immunocompromised status, presence of pre-existing medical conditions, and socioeconomic status/education level. This matched population constitutes the cohort in which risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis will be evaluated (secondary objective). The matching variables, vaccination status, and other baseline variables to be identified in a review of the medical literature will be considered as potential risk factors for the development of myocarditis and of pericarditis.
Population: The source population will comprise all individuals across 5 European countries (i.e., the Netherlands [NL], United Kingdom [UK], Italy [IT], Norway [NO], and Spain [ES]) who are registered in the health care database(s) used in the study and who are eligible to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. The study period starts on the date of conditional approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID 19 vaccine in each country: 01 December 2020 in UK and 21 December 2020 in NL, IT, ES, and NO. The study period will end on 31 December 2023, however, the end date may be earlier in some data sources depending on the latest date of data availability at that time.
Variables:
Exposure to vaccines will be assessed in each data source based on recorded prescription, dispensing, or administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine administration and date of vaccination will be obtained from all possible sources that capture COVID-19 vaccination.
Myocarditis/pericarditis: Standard algorithms for myocarditis and for pericarditis will be applied to participant data sources to identify potential cases. The potential cases of myocarditis or pericarditis will be validated against information available for each data source and classified based on the definitions of the Brighton Collaboration. Cardiac symptoms for myocarditis and pericarditis are acute chest pain or pressure; dyspnoea after exercise, at rest, or lying down; fatigue; diaphoresis; and sudden death. Other non-specific symptoms in adults are palpitations, abdominal pain, dizziness, syncope and cardiogenic shock, fatigue, oedema, and cough. In infants or young children, symptoms include irritability, vomiting, poor feeding, and sweating. The detection of these signs and symptoms during the validation process will be used to determine levels of certainty of the diagnosis.
Potential risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis are demographics (such as male sex, young ages); status of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccination and non-COVID vaccinations; vaccine doses received (e.g., first, second, third, and booster doses); post-vaccination risk window of 1 14 days; history of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases; status of immunocompromising conditions and systemic immune-mediated diseases; and comedication use (prescriptions or dispensings only) during the year before time zero (defined as date of vaccination, or matched index date for comparator).
Treatments for myocarditis based on clinical presentation of mild symptoms include paracetamol and antivirals for viral myocarditis; immunosuppression treatment for autoimmune myocarditis; heart failure therapy (i.e., beta-blockers, diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme [ACE] inhibitors or angiotensin-II receptor blockers [ARBs], aldosterone agonists, cardiac glycosides or calcium-channel blockers); and procedures (i.e., pacemaker, implantable cardiac defibrillator, mechanical circulatory support, and heart transplantation).
Treatments for pericarditis include antimicrobial treatment (for pericarditis of proven infectious origin); anti-inflammatory treatment (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] and colchicine [for recurrent pericarditis]); and procedures (i.e., intrapericardial administration of steroids; pericardioscopy for direct instillation of treatments into the pericardial space; pericardial drainage; subdiaphragmatic laparoscopic technique, video-assisted thoracoscopic technique, and pericardioscopy for easy drainage of effusion; pericardiocentesis; cardiac catheterisation during pericardiocentesis; balloon pericardial window formation; instillation of sclerosing agents or fibrinolytic agents; and pericardiectomy).
Potential outcomes for myocarditis that will be evaluated are recovery, survival, hospitalisations, sudden cardiac death, heart failure, cardiogenic shock, fulminant myocarditis, inflammatory cardiomyopathy, heart transplant, and arrhythmia.
Potential outcomes for pericarditis that will be evaluated are recovery, survival, hospitalisations, and chronic, restrictive, and recurrent pericarditis.
Data sources: The study will be performed using the following data sources: PHARMO (PHARMO Institute for Drug Outcomes Research) (NL), ARS Toscana (Agenzia Regionale di Sanità della Toscana) (IT), Pedianet/Health Search Database (HSD) (IT), EpiChron (EpiChron Research Group on Chronic Diseases) (ES), CPRD (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) (UK), the Norwegian health registers (NO), and SIDIAP (Sistema d’Informació per el Desenvolupament de la Investigació en Atenció Primària) [Information System for the Improvement of Research in Primary Care] (ES).
Study size: The study will be conducted in a source population of 38.9 million individuals captured across the electronic healthcare data sources. The 42-day risk of myocarditis has been reported to be 2.13 cases per 100,000 vaccinated individuals and about one-third of this in unvaccinated individuals. Therefore, we expect to identify approximately 469 cases of myocarditis among vaccinated individuals and 150 cases among unvaccinated individuals.
Data analysis:
Natural history of myocarditis and pericarditis (primary objective): Individuals will be followed through recovery, death, or end of study period, whichever occurs first. The distributions of vaccination status and other baseline characteristics will be described. For continuous variables, means, standard deviations and quartiles will be estimated. For categorical variables, counts and proportions will be estimated. The missingness of variables will also be described. The occurrence of the different treatments and outcomes during follow-up will be described using counts and proportions. Continuous variables (e.g., length of stay) will be described using means, standard deviations and quartiles. When appropriate, the occurrence of time-to-event outcomes (e.g., death) will be described using the Kaplan-Meier estimator or curve.
Analysis will be performed overall by sex and age, COVID-19 history, vaccination status, and time since vaccination.
Risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis (secondary objective): All individuals in the matched cohort of the parent study will be followed from the date of matching (i.e., the date of vaccination for those in the vaccinated group and a matched calendar date in the unvaccinated group) until the earliest occurrence of the following:
? Diagnosis of myocarditis or pericarditis
? Death
? Administrative end of follow-up
? Receipt of a non-Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
? Unvaccinated member of the pair is vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 (both the unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals of the pair will be censored).
All baseline variables, including vaccination status, will be treated as potential risk factors or effect modifiers for the development of myocarditis and/or pericarditis. A regression-based predictive analysis will be conducted to identify the variables that better predict the diagnoses. The strength of the association between the risk factors and a diagnosis of myocarditis or pericarditis will be estimated via odds ratios or hazard ratios, as appropriate.